Just for fun
Wednesday, July 30th, 2008 by AriJust for the heck of it, I decided to play a little presidential game. We hear far too often which party or candidate is good for this issue or the other. Let’s look over the past 100 years, and see who has been “good” for the stock market. I managed to dig up the historical price data for the Dow Jones Industrials Average and figured out how the market did on each president’s watch. Here are the results:
| President | Date of prior market close | DJIA when taking office | DJIA when leaving office | Change (%) |
| George W. Bush | 1/19/2001 | 10,587.59 | 11,397.56 | 7.65 |
| Bill Clinton | 1/20/1993 | 3,241.95 | 10,587.59 | 226.58 |
| George H.W. Bush | 1/20/1989 | 2,235.36 | 3,241.95 | 45.03 |
| Ronald Reagan | 1/20/1981 | 950.69 | 2,235.36 | 135.13 |
| Jimmy Carter | 1/20/1977 | 959.03 | 950.69 | -0.87 |
| Gerald Ford | 8/9/1974 | 777.3 | 959.03 | 23.38 |
| Richard Nixon | 1/20/1969 | 931.25 | 777.3 | -16.53 |
| Lyndon Johnson | 1/20/1965 | 895.31 | 931.25 | 4.01 |
| John F Kennedy | 1/20/1961 | 634.37 | 895.31 | 41.13 |
| Dwight Eisenhower | 1/20/1953 | 288 | 634.37 | 120.27 |
| Harry Truman | 1/20/1949 | 181.43 | 288 | 58.74 |
| Franklin Roosevelt | 3/3/1933 | 53.84 | 181.43 | 236.98 |
| Herbert Hoover | 3/4/1929 | 313.86 | 53.84 | -82.85 |
| Calvin Coolidge | 8/2/1923 | 88.2 | 313.86 | 255.85 |
| Warren Harding | 3/4/1921 | 75.11 | 88.2 | 17.43 |
| Woodrow Wilson | 3/4/1913 | 80.71 | 75.11 | -6.94 |
| William Taft | 3/4/1909 | 81.79 | 80.71 | -1.32 |
| Theodore Roosevelt | 9/13/1901 | 67.25 | 81.79 | 21.62 |
Since the great depression, Carter and Nixon are by far the two worst presidents when it comes to guiding the market, with George W Bush and LBJ running closely behind. Reagan and Clinton were by far the best. What’s interesting to note is that Clinton and Reagan had two very different economic plans. Regan increased defense spending tremendously and tried supply side economics to spur growth. Clinton took a very laissez-faire approach to the technological boom, declining to regulate or interfere in any way. (Think sales tax on internet purchases and how many other people would have handled that issue).
These numbers should probably also be taken with a grain of salt. From the numbers alone it looks like Calvin Coolidge had the highest growth in only 6 years time (compared with 8 for Clinton and Reagan), but the over exuberant growth under his administration is what led to the massive crash in 1929.